Data is Golden – Hope is NOT a Strategy!
Written by Peter Buckingham, Co-Founder and Managing Director, Spectrum Analysis Australia
What data is available for your school that you can use to create a fact-based Strategic Plan?
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) - Census Data
Every five years the ABS runs a Census. The most recent Census was conducted in August 2021, and various data sets will be released over time. These include the population of any area (in 2021), by gender, age, ethnicity, income, religious trends, what type of schools children attend and more.
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) - Socio Economic Index for Areas (SEIFA)
This ABS data looks at every area in Australia and calculates a comparative score showing what the residents can afford to do. The average of the SEIFA score for Australia from the 2021 census was 1004, and top areas around Double Bay in Sydney or Toorak in Melbourne score up near 1200, and low socio economic regional areas can be as low as 600 – 800.
This is a better way for comparing income areas Australia wide than just the Average Household Income. This will help you identify whether or not families who can access your school can pay your school fees.
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) - Population Forecasts
The ABS gives out population forecasts for areas and the most recently released Australia wide population forecast covered 2022 – 2032. This is classified in gender and age groups 0 – 4, 5 – 9, 10 – 14, 15 – 19 etc.
Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority (ACARA) - My School Data
This is updated and released annually and includes enrolment numbers since 2008 for every school as well as staff numbers. It also enables us to see various financials around every school including average parent contributions (fees).
Australian Children’s Education & Care Quality Authority (ACECQA) – Ratings and Places
This is updated and released annually and provides a list of 17,000+ Early Learning Centres, Kindergartens and Child Minding Places, how many registered places they have and their National Quality Standard (NQS) rating. This can be extremely useful information for attracting the youngest students in your school.
How to Prepare the Data for a Strategic Plan
We recommend starting with a demographic forecast for your area to provide factual evidence that there are enough school age students that can easily reach your school and that their families can afford to pay your school fees.
If your school is considering a multi-million dollar building program for the long-term improvement of the school at its current location, again, you need to provide factual evidence. This factual data can also be used in grant, philanthropic and government funding applications.
Additional analysis and reporting can also be used to identify future campus locations, alternative transport routes and the viability of offering an Early Learning Centre on site.
Alternatively, you could compare enrolment numbers and fees of comparative schools either close to your school or in a similar socio-economic area.
What do other Schools normally do?
Some schools have an aspirational Strategic Plan with a broader qualitative focus, some are well organised with a clear quantitative component and some don’t have a Strategic Plan at all.
Most of the schools we support have a three year cycle. In the final year of the three year cycle, they start working on the next three year Strategic Plan.
We like to ensure that each school completes realistic reviews during each three year cycle and makes sure that any assumptions or goals are validated and checked and that the Strategic Plan is providing the right framework for prudent decision-making.
We encourage schools to complete a full analysis and review every five or six years to ensure that their Strategic Plan is based on sound data.
Whilst five years aligns with the timing of the Census cycle, there is no particular time during the Census cycle that all of the relevant information is “fresh” as various data sets are released at different times.
Ideally, the analysis and review we offer would be completed in the last year of the school’s current Strategic Plan, and then as the Strategic Plan is coming together, the data is ready to be included in the following Strategic Plan.
Mapping
During the analysis and review we offer, we create a strong online mapping system that the school can login to securely. We update it on an annual basis.
The online mapping system shows the residence of ALL of your current students, your future enrolments and alumni. These can also be sorted by specific past years.
It will also allow you to see a variety of Census demographics, and what we feel are the most important numbers including population projections by age from 2023 to 2032. This will help you understand student increases and decreases over time so that you can plan accordingly.
The mapping also allows you to identify Primary and Secondary Trade areas, and look at smaller areas in terms of market share, where we can show your schools’ students as the numerator and the available students from that area as the denominator. These types of layers can help plan the school’s targeted approach to enrolments, marketing and bus routing.
Summary
Good data is the key to good decision making for the long term future of your school. Whether you choose to collect and analyse the available data internally or have an external company do this work, by having a report and access to regularly updated online mapping, you are then equipped to make the right decisions for your school’s future, from the Board though to the operational staff.